The Telco API problem= 2 sided markets are winner take all

I noticed several unique posts this week that seemed to come together in my mind. First, Voxeo made yet another strategic partnership announcement with Motorola and their VXML broswer. Secondly, Google and Verizon announced a strategic partnership. Third, Amazon payments api went mobile. Finally, my friend, Tom Howe started posting again with some comments about what he calls the Telco API problem.

Here is my answer to the "Telco API" problem posed by Tom.
In my CEBP status report,I compared ( with Alan Quayle) the success of the CEBP application vendors to the api/platform vendors. Tom reiterates the report's findings in that it is clear the application vendors as a group have been much more successful. VoiceSage is just my latest example of a CEBP application company driving real revenue, fantastic product innovation, and seeing crazy growth.

It is also clear to me that the Telco API/Platform opportunity is a classic example of a 2 sided network or 2 sided market. According to Harvard Business School research, one of the defining characteristics of two-sided markets is they tend to quickly evolve into winner take all competitive environments.

Now, the world of Telco is huge. So, the winner take all competitive environment may ultimately mean there are 2 or 3 dominant market leaders globally in the Telco API/Platform space. Here is the problem. One of those spots has been nailed down already by Voxeo.

Another winner's position may have just been nailed down by Google Voice if they can leverage the Verizon/Google partnership just announced. While this may fail due to egos, when it gets down to execution, the Google Android Verizon announcement gets my early bet for the second platform/api winner. Google is a platform. Verizon is a platform. Combining the two of them makes THE global platform. Google Voice is just one of many CEBP style solutions to come. Click to connect advertising and real time lead generation is being tested now.

In terms of who might be the final api/platform winner I am keeping my eyes open for the first player who wakes up and proactively integrates with mobile payment players especially Amazon. Will Ribbit/BT get there first? Adobe Flash ( a Ribbit tool set) is certainly pushing towards mobile.

So, this is the beginning of a debate. I say the Telco API/Platform winners have basically been decided. My guess is Thomas Howe believes otherwise. We both agree there is plenty of opportunity left in the CEBP application space. I've kept some of my powder dry to respond to Tom's arguments.